The Analysis of Economic Failure Triad in Iraq (2010-2024): An Econometric Study Using ARDL Model
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Abstract
Abstract Iraq’s prolonged economic underperformance since 2010 reflects a structural configuration rather than a cyclical deviation: oil-revenue dependence has deepened rather than diminished, corruption has become entrenched within resource-allocation mechanisms, and the productive base has failed to diversify despite successive growth episodes. This paper models the three dimensions as an interlocking system and estimates their joint effect on real output using a combined ARDL–VAR econometric strategy, which captures both equilibrium relationships and dynamic shock transmission. The empirical analysis covers sixty quarterly observations through 2024 and is organised around three objectives: mapping the theoretical architecture of the failure triad; estimating its quantitative footprint on growth; and simulating the output trajectory under alternative reform scenarios.
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