Using the maximum likelihood method to estimate the parameters of the SIR model and applying it to Corona patients: a case study in Iraq
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Abstract
In this research، the SIR model was used to analyze the development of COVID-19 disease in Iraq، as the SIR model is governed by a non-linear system of differential equations that allow us to discover epidemic trends and make reliable predictions of the development of infection in the short term. The maximum likelihood method
was used to estimate the parameters of the SIR model، which explains the development of infection in the previous period in Iraq. The R statistical program was used to estimate the model parameters using the maximum likelihood method. The analysis shows good short-term predictions using the SIR model، which are useful to know the impact of the development of the epidemic and thus implement measures that help reduce its harmful effects and take appropriate decisions to reduce it.
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