أثر مؤشرات الشمول المالي على الانفتاح التجاري في العراق: دراسة قياسية للمدة (2010-2024)
الشريط الجانبي للمقالة
محتوى المقالة الرئيسي
الملخص
: يتناول البحث أثر الشمول المالي في تفسير سلوك الانفتاح التجاري في العراق خلال 2010–2024، بالاعتماد على بيانات البنك المركزي العراقي. ينطلق من مشكلة ضعف الشمول المالي وسيادة الاقتصاد النقدي وما يترتب عليه من ارتفاع تكاليف المعاملات وضعف استخدام القنوات الرسمية للتسويات التجارية. قيس الانفتاح التجاري بنسبة الاستيرادات إلى الناتج المحلي الإجمالي، في حين مثلت مؤشرات الشمول المالي الوصول والاستخدام من خلال انتشار الخدمات المصرفية، كثافة أجهزة الصراف والفروع، وعمق الودائع والائتمان للقطاع الخاص. تم توحيد البيانات ربعياً، واستخدام الإحصاءات الوصفية، اختبار فيليبس بيرون، ومعامل تضخم التباين. وبسبب التداخل العالي بين المؤشرات، طُبق نموذج الانحدار المرن مع تحقق متقاطع. أظهرت النتائج أن توسع البنية المصرفية يرتبط بارتفاع الانفتاح التجاري، بينما بعض مؤشرات الاستخدام النقدي والائتماني تظهر أثرًا عكسيًا في ظل ضغوط سعر الصرف وتنظيم الاستيراد.
تفاصيل المقالة
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